INTRODUCTION
Population displacement has increased more in the modern
world, change in technology, wars,
famine and diseases have much impact on population
change. The relationship between population growth
and the level of a national welfare growth has long been a central concern for
those interested in population problem (Hughes, 2009).
East Africa region is slowly developing into
one of the world new population blocks, already in 2010 has a total population
of 327 million, thus having advanced into most populated region in Africa which
will exceeds even the West Africa.
Therefore estimate indicate that, East Africa population to have more than
doubled by 2050, then a nearly population of 771 million (UNFPA, 2010).
By 2050, East Africa population could even
exceed the entire population of Latin America and the Caribbean, from the
Mexico in the North to Argentina to the South. In 2050, this will have Eastern
Africa as the world third largest population block and market world wide after
Southern Asia. The population dynamic reflects both challenge and opportunity
in the future time.
Definition of key terms
Demographic transition
refers to the transition from high birth and death rate to low birth and death
rate as country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
system (Warren, 1929).
Population is the total number of persons inhibiting a country, city, or any district or area (Bradshaw,
2009).
Stages of demographic transition
Stage one and that is pre
industrial society
In
this stage birth and death are high and roughly in balance, all human
populations are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th
century when this balance ended in Western Europe. Since there is balance in
nature population tends to be low.
Stage two and that is of developing
countries
In
this stage the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and
sanitation which increase life span and reduce diseases, other improvement
include access to technology, basic health care and education. In this stage
still birth rate is high while death rate is low hence increasing population.
Stage three that is nearly or
industrial society
In
this stage birth rate fall due to access to contraception, increase in wages,
urbanization, reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in status and
education of women, reduction in value of children and other social changes,
means population start to level off.
Stage four which involve industrial
and post industrial society
In
this stage there is both low birth rates and low death late; birth late may
drop to well below replacement level as happened in country like Italy, German,
and Japan leading to shrinking population. Death rate may remain constantly low
or increasing due to increase in lifestyle diseases.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN EAST
AFRICA
In
explanation of the East Africa demographic transition, it is useful to use the
demographic transition model which was developed by Warren Thomson which was developed
in 1929. Thomson observed transition, in birth and death rates in
industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Warren explained that,
demographic transition contains four stages which later were developed to five
or six by various scholars. According to him, developed countries are in stage
3 or 4 of the mode and developing countries like that of East African countries
are in stage 2 or 3. In countries that are now developed this demographic
transition began in the 18th century and continues today, in
developing countries this transition started later and still at earlier stage,
although differs among countries and within a country.
Transition in terms of fertility in
East Africa
East
Africa fertility still is high although it has been declining from time to time
at a very low pace. Despite the decline in fertility rate still East Africa
countries is characterized by high growth in terms of population. For example,
Tanzania population has increased from 11 million in 1963 to over 45 million in
2012 and it is projected to reach 100 million in 2035 and 200 by the end of
this century. Uganda population ha reached 35 million and is expected to double
to 70 million by 2031 and reach 100 million in 2040. Kenya population has
reached 41 in 2011, Compared to 38.6, 28.7 in 2009, 21.4 in 1989 and 15.3
million in 1979, Million in 2009, compared to 28 in 2009, and 21 in 1989. The
low populate countries in region is Rwanda which is about10.4 million and Burundi with about 8.4 million in 2009 from
2.6 in 1950s (World Bank, 2010).
Fertility
rate has been decreasing in all countries, for example in Kenya the number of
children per family has fallen sharply, from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6
children in 2008 and is projected to reach 2.4 children by 2050. In Tanzania
fertility has dropped from 6.7 in 1980 up to 5.6 in 2007, and 5.4 in 2011 and
is expected to be 5.0 in 2015. Population growth has generally been reduced
from 2.9 in 2002 to 2.7 by 2015. The fertility rate per woman in Tanzania is
high compared to that of Kenya and Rwanda which is 4.6 with exception of
Uganda. Since 1991, this rate has only declined by 13 percent in Tanzania
against 26 and 31 percent in Rwanda and Kenya, respectively (URT, 2010, World
Bank, 2010).
Transition in terms of mortality or
death
A
progressive change in terms of mortality rate has been promising in East Africa
region although still some challenges remains in terms of reducing mortality
rate in the region. Reduction in mortality rate has men to increase in
population in the region as the number of people who born and live exceed that
of death. In Tanzania for example, infant
mortality rate were reduced from 172 per 1000 in 1980 up to 87 in 2007, and 68
in 2011. Life expectance in Tanzania has increased over the past two decades
from 50 to 58 yeas (URT, 2010). In Kenya infant mortality rate were declining
from 199.40 per 1000 in 1960 to 108.6 in199 and 72.80 in 2011 (UNICEF &
WHO, 2012). In Rwanda, mortality ate under 5 years has dropped from 299.00 per
1000 in 1994 up to 54.10 in 2011. In Burundi the were from 249.40 per 1000 in
1960 up to minimum value of 139.10 in 2011, in Uganda the rate were from 214.70
per 1000 up to 89.90 in 2011 (World Bank, 2011).
General causes of high fertility and
population expansion in East Africa
The
current high population is because of high fertility in previous time,
existence of so many families, a number of children continue to grow, and
increase in life expectance. High fertility has been also contributed by
various factors such as early marriage where by the median age at first marriage
in 2010 was 18.8 years in Tanzania compared to 20.0 in Kenya and 21.4 in
Rwanda, insufficient education, low percentage of women using modern
contraceptive which is only about 27 percent in Tanzania, Poverty and in some
ways by migration factors although it has not been a much case.
In
some aspect improvement in level of income, the use of modern contraceptive,
increase in women status, increase in literacy and education level, decline in
cultural practices that enhanced high fertility has been the reason for the
decline in fertility level in east Africa.
General causes for decline in
mortality and death rate in East Africa
Generally
improvement into human well being through improved health care which has read
to control of various diseases through immunization has contributed to the
increase in life span especially to children. In addition to this improved
sanitation, nutrition, access to food and food security, public health measures
through health improved programs and education has much positive impacts on
reducing mortality rate.
Recommendation
In
recommendation we all should ask this questions there will be enough food to
feed 100 million people in 2015, how can enough jobs be created for the
mounting youth population, will be there enough resources to provide high
quality education, infrastructure, and other basic necessity for the coming
generation or will economic development and urbanization be sufficient to
reduce population growth over time, should government promote family planning
programs like other country like Rwanda did, but more than that how many men
are ready to participate in family planning programs or should targeted
education programs be implemented to encourage girls to remain in schools. This
is all question we all should have the right answers and contribute to take
actively action to where we think is appropriate for the development of our
country and East Africa community respectively.
Conclusion
Generally
we can conclude by adding that, Although there is a discussion on whether the
African countries has reached to transition or not, we can comment that African
countries are in demographic transition and East African countries are in the
second stage of transition where birth rate are still high due to low decline
especially in rural areas, while the death rate has been declining rapidly.
Despite
being in second stage, some areas like that of the cities and urban areas are
experiencing the third stage of transition while characterized by high
population resulted from migration. Initiative towards balanced transition is
still very important so as to archive sustainable social and economic
development. It’s a high time we need to make an analysis between the available
resources and our population and to take appropriate measures whether to
continue encouraging high fertility, balancing or reducing. But the sign of our
last population census calls for increasing initiative towards fertility
balance.
REFERENCES
Government report: (URT, 2010). National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty. Dar
es Salaam: Ministry of Finance and
Economic Affairs.
Michael
Hughes & Carolyn J. Kroehler (2009). Sociology
(The core)9th Ed. New York: Mc-
Graw-Hill Companies
World
Bank (2009). The World banks World
Development Report for 2009, (Reshaping
Economic
Geography: New York: World Bank
World Bank (2009). World Bank Computations Based on United Nation. Nairobi: World Bank
World Bank (2010). World Population Prospect and Various Issues of demographic and Health
Survey for Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and
Rwanda. East Africa: World Bank
United
Nation (UNICEf & World Bank, 2011) Inter
–Agency Group for Child Mortality
Estimation.
East Africa Country Reports: United Nation
Written By AUSI CHIWAMBO (2014)-Teofilo Kisanji University
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